Unless agriculture practices change, the use of antibiotics in livestock worldwide is projected to increase 19% in 5 years and almost 30% by 2040—to more than 140,000 tons—according to new estimates by scientists with the United Nations (UN) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) published in Nature Communications.
The study authors note that 47 countries have pledged to decrease antimicrobial use in food-producing animals by 30% to 50% by 2030. And additional governments worldwide have endorsed the 79th UN General Assembly declaration, committing to a significant reduction in antimicrobial use in food animals.
Previous studies have used the population correction unit (PCU) approach to calculate antibiotic use intensity to project estimated future antibiotic consumption in animal production. "However, several studies have raised concerns about the PCU indicator, primarily due to the accuracy of the denominator," the authors write.
To address these concerns, the team developed a livestock biomass conversion (LBC) method, which incorporates detailed live weight data and reflects differences across animal species, commodity, production systems, production cycles, and herd sizes. They also used a unique global dataset from the FAO to implement the LBC, enabling what they say is more accurate calculations of livestock biomass, or the total weight of animals used for food.
Optimized productivity could cut drug use 57%
The FAO researchers estimate that, without interventions, global livestock antibiotic use could rise to 143,481 tons by 2040, an increase of 29.5% from the 2019 baseline level of 110,777 tons. It would reach 131,411 tons by 2030, or an 18.6% increase.
In addition, the researchers spotlight wide regional variations. They project Asia to remain the largest contributor, accounting for two thirds of global livestock antibiotic use. And Africa is expected to experience the highest growth in antibiotic consumption, with a 40.8% rise from 2019 to 2040. The team estimates that North America and Europe will see only minimal increases.
Alternative scenarios, though, reduce antibiotic use by up to 57% if livestock productivity is optimized, the researchers estimate. By improving animal health, management practices, and production efficiency, antibiotic use could be lowered to about 62,000 tons by 2040, demonstrating the potential of targeted interventions in achieving global reduction goals, according to a news release from the FAO.
"Enhancing livestock production efficiency is key to curbing antibiotic use," Alejandro Acosta, PhD, an FAO livestock economist and first study author, said in the release. "By producing more animal-sourced food with the same or fewer animals, we can reduce the need for antibiotics on farmed animals while strengthening global food security."
Enhancing livestock production efficiency is key to curbing antibiotic use.
The FAO investigators say another key is reducing the sheer number of animals raised and processed, which they refer to as livestock biomass reduction.
The authors conclude, "The findings have important policy implications, highlighting that meaningful reductions in antibiotic use quantity can only be achieved through coordinated efforts targeting both antibiotic use intensity and livestock biomass."
FAO efforts to decrease antibiotics
In support of efforts to curtail antibiotic use in food animals, the FAO a year ago launched the "Reduce the Need for Antimicrobials on Farms for Sustainable Agrifood Systems Transformation" (RENOFARM) initiative. It provides policy guidance, technical assistance, and capacity-building to help countries and territories reduce antibiotic use while promoting sustainable livestock raising.
Stakeholders across the livestock sector must work together.
"FAO is committed to transforming agrifood systems by reducing the need for antimicrobials, as the RENOFARM does, thereby promoting sustainable practices and safeguarding public health,” said Thanawat Tiensin, PhD, director of FAO's Animal Production and Health Division.
"Stakeholders across the livestock sector must work together to improve disease prevention, strengthen monitoring systems, and invest in innovations that enhance animal health while reducing reliance on antibiotics," said Junxia Song, PhD, FAO senior animal health officer and senior author of the study.
