Editor's Note: The BMJ announced on June 13, 2024, that it is investigating the quality of the research used in this study and will place an expression of concern on the paper. Since its publication, the study has been criticized for implying a direct causal link between COVID-19 vaccination and mortality, though the study assessed only trends in excess mortality over time, not causes.
See also: June 17, 2024, commentary by Lone Simonsen, PhD, and Rasmus Pedersen, PhD, on why they believe the study should be retracted.
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New COVID-19 excess death rate estimates from 47 countries show that rates remained high for 3 consecutive pandemic years.
"Excess mortality has remained high in the Western World for three consecutive years, despite the implementation of COVID-19 containment measures and COVID-19 vaccines. This is unprecedented and raises serious concerns," the authors wrote.
This is unprecedented and raises serious concerns.
The study, published yesterday in BMJ Public Health, assessed people who died from any cause above and beyond what would normally be expected from January 2020 to December 2022 in 47 countries in Europe, North America, Australia and New Zealand. Death rates were compared to historical death data in each country from 2015 until 2019, and matched by both week and month.
Death rates 14% higher in 2021
In total, the number of excess deaths in the 47 countries was 3,098,456 from January 1, 2020, until December 31, 2022. In 2020, 1,033,122 excess deaths were recorded, and that number rose in 2021 to 1,256, 942 excess deaths despite containment measures and widespread use of vaccine in Western countries.
That was 14% more deaths than expected.
"In 2022, the year in which most containment measures were lifted and COVID-19 vaccines were continued, preliminary available data counts 808,392 excess deaths," the authors wrote.
Forty-one countries reported excess deaths in 2020, 42 in 2021, and 43 in 2022. The only country to not report excess deaths from 2020 through 2022 was Greenland.
"Government leaders and policymakers need to thoroughly investigate underlying causes of persistent excess mortality and evaluate their health crisis policies," the authors concluded.