
A new study in JAMA Health Forum of national data on US registered nurses (RNs) finds that the rebound in the total size of the RN workforce during 2022 and 2023 indicates that RN labor shortages during the first 2 years of the pandemic were likely transitory.
In 2021, the US RN workforce decreased by more than 100,000 employees, the largest single-year drop in 40 years.
But by 2022, increases in RN hiring had picked up across the country. To assess if pandemic trends were lasting or an anomaly, researchers used data from the US Bureau of the Census Current Population Survey, including employed RNs aged 23 to 69 years from 1982 through 2023. They paired those data with a retrospective cohort analysis of employment trends by birth year and age to project the age distribution and employment of RNs through 2035.
Included in the survey were 455,085 RNs ages 23 to 69. The authors found that the total number of full-time RNs in 2022 and 2023—3.35 million—was actually 6% higher than in 2019 (3.16 million).
Workforce expected to grow to 4.5 million by 2035
Using projections based on enrollment in nursing programs and jobs data, the authors estimate that by 2035, the RN workforce will grow by 1.2 million full-time employees to 4.5 million, which matches prepandemic forecasts. RNs ages 35 to 49 will make up nearly half of the workforce (47%) in 2035. In 2022, those RNs accounted for 38% of the workforce.
"This forecast suggests that the pandemic's impact on employed RNs, at least thus far, is unlikely to have a significant impact on the future growth of the overall RN workforce," the authors said.
This forecast suggests that the pandemic's impact on employed RNs, at least thus far, is unlikely to have a significant impact on the future growth of the overall RN workforce.
The authors did note, however, that RN employment in hospital settings is shifting, and may add to the perception of staffing shortages.
"Workforce growth from 2018 to 2023 occurred almost entirely in nonhospital settings and may reflect a shift of RN employment away from hospitals and into ambulatory and community settings," they wrote. "This shift may help explain why some hospitals have reported shortages of RNs, despite robust growth of the overall workforce in 2022 and 2023."